November 22, 2022
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2 MIN

The population eligible to telework is expected to triple within two years

In two years' time, 31% of employees could be eligible for a home office, compared to 9% before the crisis, according to the results of a survey conducted by Xerfi. This figure is forcing companies to rethink their real estate.

The population eligible to telework is expected to triple within two years

In two years' time, 31% of employees could be eligible for a home office, compared to 9% before the crisis, according to the results of a survey conducted by Xerfi. This figure is forcing companies to rethink their real estate.

The Xerfi Spécific survey entitled "The Office Property Observatory - Teleworking, Flexibility, Services" brings together the testimonies of 800 company directors to understand the current changes in the office property sector.

According to the results of this survey, the population eligible to telework (at least one day per week) will triple from 9% before the health crisis to 31% in two years, all sectors combined. The frequency will also increase to an average of 2.2 days of telework per week, compared to 1.2 days before the crisis.

In this context, reducing office space is not an aberration. Nearly a quarter of future real estate projects (relocation or redevelopment of premises) involve a reduction in occupied space. The study reveals that more than 30% of large companies are considering changing their real estate to an equivalent or smaller surface.

Demand in Île-de-France: potential drop of 10 million sq.m

According to the most extreme scenario of Xerfi Spécific's experts, extrapolating the projections of teleworking in two years' time on the need for office space, the potential drop in demand in Île-de-France could reach 10 million square metres, i.e. about 20% of the stock. "At best, several million square metres will be put back on the market with a risk of increased vacancy, pressure on rental values and a lasting decline in take-up for office property players," the Xerfi survey details.

The demand for office space will therefore move towards more flexibility in terms of contracts and space:

  • Non-committal offers (coworking, third-party locations, etc.) are attractive to 17% of major accounts, which say they are ready to switch all or part of their offices to a workspace service contract in place of a traditional commercial lease.
  • 35% of service sector companies and half of the large companies are interested in operating and coworking space in occupied buildings.
  • The flex office is now the choice of 18% of service companies and one third of large accounts.

Offices, future social hubs for QWL?

Turnkey offices* are still an emerging offer but are known to a quarter of the respondents and half of the major accounts. This desire for flexibility is also characterised by the accelerated spread of the flex office, which is closely linked to the rise of teleworking, since the flexible office makes it possible to optimise the rotation of staff on site and to envisage a reduction in the surface area occupied.

In addition, equipment (collaborative spaces, natural lighting, audio and video-conferencing equipment, rest and entertainment areas, etc.) and design are the main criteria for companies and among the main expectations of lessors. Daily services (catering, concierge services, childcare) are also appreciated, provided they are managed by a specialised operator and preferably set up by the landlord.

According to Xerfi's projections, "offices could well become social hubs, likely to encourage formal and informal exchanges or the transmission of knowledge and skills".

fully equipped, fitted out and ready to use workspaces with a less restrictive commitment than a commercial lease and a promise of flexibility of space

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In two years, 31% of employees could claim the home office, against 9% before the crisis, according to the results of a survey conducted by Xerfi. A figure which forces companies to rethink their real estate.

New uses of offices, transformations of workspaces... The Xerfi Specific survey entitled "The office real estate observatory - Teleworking, flexibility, services" brings together the testimonies of 800 business leaders to understand the current changes in tertiary real estate.

According to the results of this survey, the population eligible for teleworking (at least one day a week) will triple from 9% before the health crisis to 31% in two years, all sectors combined. The frequency will also increase to an average of 2.2 days of remote work per week, compared to 1.2 days before the crisis.

In this context, reducing office space is not an aberration. Almost a quarter of future real estate projects (relocation or redevelopment of premises) involve a reduction in occupied areas. The study reveals that more than 30% of large companies plan to upgrade their real estate for an equivalent or smaller surface area

Demand in Île-de-France: potential decrease of 10 million m²

According to the most extreme scenario of the experts by Xerfi Specific, by extrapolating projections of teleworking in two years to office space requirements, the potential drop in demand in Île-de-France could reach 10 million square meters, or around 20% of the fleet. "At best, several million square meters will be put back on the market with a risk of an increase in vacancies, pressure on rental values and the lasting decline in take-up for the players in the office property", details the Xerfi investigation.

Demand for offices will therefore shift towards greater flexibility in terms of contracts and surface areas:

- Offers without commitment (coworking, third-party locations, etc.) attract 17% of large accounts who say they are ready to switch all or part of their offices under a workspace service contract to replace a traditional commercial lease.

- 35% of tertiary companies and half of large accounts show their interest in operated and coworking space in occupied buildings.

- flex office is now the choice of 18% of service companies and a third of large accounts.

Offices, future social hubs at the service of quality of work life ?

Turnkey offices * are still an emerging offer, but known to a quarter of the people questioned and half of the major accounts. This desire for flexibility is also characterized by the accelerated diffusion of the flex office, closely linked to the rise of teleworking since the flexible office makes it possible to optimize the rotation of staff on site and to consider a reduction in occupied surfaces.

In addition, equipment (collaborative spaces, natural lighting, audio and videoconferencing equipment, rest and entertainment areas, etc.) and design are asserting themselves as the main criteria for choosing companies and among the main expectations for companies. Daily services (catering, concierge, childcare) are also appreciated, provided they are managed by a specialized operator and preferably set up by the lessor.

According to Xerfi projections, "offices could well become social hubs, likely to promote formal and informal exchanges or even the transmission of knowledge and skills. "

Pierre Godret

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